Equations: What will happen after the Sydney derby

With only nine rounds to go and one point separating Sydney FC and the Western Sydney Wanderers, the Sydney Derby this Saturday night is a significant game for the Premiership and top six race.

The Wanderers defeated the Sky Blues 1-0 earlier this season; however with Western Sydney sitting fifth and the Sky Blues coming sixth, whoever wins this game will earn more than bragging rights.

We looked at all the different outcomes that could happen for both teams and sets of players depending on the result and what could happen to the history of the tie itself.

2023/2024 A-League Season Equation:

Currently, Sydney FC have 27 points on the Isuzu UTE A-League ladder, whilst the Wanderers have 28, making this match outcome potentially crucial to where the teams sit at the end of the season.

Reminder: The top six sides make it through the finals, with the top two sides earning automatic qualification into the semi-finals. If both teams are equal on points, the tiebreak is decided by who has more wins, and then who has a higher point differential.

Position:	Team:	Points:	Played:	Wins:	+/-
1.	Wellington Phoenix	37	19	10	+11
2.	Central Coast Mariners	34	19	10	+12
3.	Melbourne Victory	31	19	7	+10
4.	Macarthur FC	29	19	7	+2
5.	Western Sydney Wanderers	28	18	8	+7
6.	Sydney FC	27	18	8	+3
7.	Melbourne City	23	18	6	-2
8.	Brisbane Roar	22	19	6	-10
9.	Perth Glory	20	18	5	-3
10.	Adelaide United	19	18	5	-3
11.	Newcastle Jets	19	19	4	-8
12.	Western United	12	18	3	-19

Joe Lolley dribbling the ball last outing

Sydney FC win:

A Sydney FC win, would see them leapfrog their crosstown rivals on the ladder and lead by two points.

If Macarthur loses to Melbourne City, the Sky Blues will surpass them into fourth position.

If Wellington and Central Coast Mariners lose their matches, the gap between the Sky Blues and the top two sides will reduce to seven and four points with a game in hand.

If Melbourne City and Brisbane Roar lose their matches, the gap between the Sky Blues and the bottom five sides will be seven points.

Wanderers win:

A Western Sydney win would see them create a four-point gap between themselves and Sydney FC.

If Macarthur loses or draws and the Wanderers win, they will jump to fourth.

A Melbourne Victory defeat against Brisbane Roar will mean the Wanderers will rise to third on the ladder.

A Wanderers and Melbourne City win, will see the Sky Blues one point away from being out of the top six.

If the Wanderers get the three points, it will be the first time any team wins back-to-back Sydney Derby matches since Sydney FC did it in the 2019/2020 season.

If the Wanderers hold a clean sheet, they will record their first clean sheet since late January.

Draw:

A draw would see both teams stay in the top six, with Sydney FC one point below the Wanderers.

If Macarthur FC loses, it would see the Wanderers surpass the Bulls on the ladder, as they have more wins this season.

If Melbourne City defeats Macarthur, the Sky Blues will be only two points ahead of them in the Finals positions.

Broader History Equations:

In the past five matchups between these two sides, the away team has won every time.

Anthony Caceres celebrating Sydney FC’s Elimination Final win last season

Sydney FC Win:

A defeat to the Wanderers would see the Sky Blues record over 50{98698ff7ed92b99d4e0cecdfdc9e4dccf4922e0a04ff9db373daf4aa83b73fe2} of matches won against Western Sydney won at the Wanderers’ home ground (currently 9 won out of the last 19 games).

A win would see the Sky Blues defeat the Wanderers for the 17th time and first win since the 2023 A-League finals.

Western Sydney Win:

A win would see the Wanderers defeat the Sky Blues at their home ground for the first time since March 2022.

It would also see them beat Sydney FC for the 12th time.

Player equations:

Sydney FC:

This match will be the first time the Sky Blues are without Luke Brattan all season due to suspension.

If Joe Lolley or Robert Mak score, they will enter the top 15 of Sydney FC’s all-time goal scorer list.

If Fabio Gomes makes two goal contributions, he will surpass Joe Lolley as the top goal contributor of the season (Joe Lolley is currently on eight goals and five assists; Fabio is on seven goals and four assists).

Hayden Matthews, Matthew Scarcella, Nathan Amanditis, Adam Pavlesic could all play in their first Sydney derby.

If Andrew Redmayne secures a clean sheet, it will be his seventh in the Sydney Derby.

Sydney FC players celebrating with fans after Elimination Final win

Western Sydney:

Nicolas Milanovic and Lachlan Brook have the same goal contributions this season. If either player scores or assists, he will become the top assister/scorer this season.

Josh Brillante will face his former side for the first time in the red and black at Western Sydney’s home ground.

The two Wanderers starting strikers, Brandon Borrello and Alexander Badolato have not scored against Sydney FC. If they do, it will be the first time they have done so.

Oscar Priestman, Jack Gibson, Sonny Kittel and Nathanael Blair could play in their first Sydney Derby.

Milos Ninkovic will play against his former side for the fifth time, where he has won two and lost two.

Other Player Facts:

Brazilian Battle: Marcelo will face Fabio a second time, and if he wins, he will go 2-0 up.